If you’ve been paying attention to construction across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) lately, you’ve probably noticed something strange 🤔
Some condo sites look frozen in time.
Approved, fenced off, but completely inactive. Yet at the same time, rental apartment buildings are still going up, and in cities like Barrie, cranes are very much alive and well 🏢⬆️.
Buyers keep hearing that “builders aren’t building,” housing is delayed, and projects are being pushed back but that story doesn’t fully match what’s happening on the ground!
So what’s really going on in 2025–2026?
👉 The short answer:
Construction in Ontario hasn’t stopped, it has shifted.
And that shift is reshaping housing supply, rental availability, pricing pressure, and where growth is happening over the next several years.
1️⃣ Condo Construction in the GTA Has Not Rebounded (Yet)
Why condo projects are still stalled in 2026
As of 2025–2026, new condo launches in Toronto and the GTA remain near historic lows. While interest rates have stabilized compared to the peak, the condo market has not experienced a meaningful rebound in new construction starts.
Builders aren’t rushing back and for good reasons.
What’s still holding condo construction back?
🔹 Pre-construction sales remain weak
Most condos require high levels of units sold before construction can begin. Buyers are cautious, which means many proposals never hit these thresholds.
🔹 Financing is still expensive by historical standards
Even modest interest rate cuts haven’t fully restored the economics that made condo building attractive a few years ago.
🔹 Construction and development costs haven’t come down
Labour, materials, and compliance costs remain elevated across the GTA.
🔹 Appraisal and completion risk is top of mind
Builders are wary of delivering condos that may not appraise at contracted prices.
➡️ The result: Many condo projects are delayed or paused — developers are waiting for more favourable economics before moving forward.
2️⃣ Housing Starts Beyond Condos: What’s Happening With Broader Residential Construction
Condo construction may be lagging, but housing starts in other residential segments, like single-family homes, townhomes, and low-rise housing are following their own dynamics.
🏠 Ownership Housing Outside Condos
Housing starts for ground-oriented homes (single family and townhomes) have also seen softness in 2025–2026, though the patterns differ from condo markets:
📉 Land scarcity and lot supply constraints:
In the GTA’s established suburbs, new lots are harder to come by, which squeezes development.
📊 Buyer affordability limits:
High mortgage payments and higher insurance/taxes are tempering demand for detached and townhome purchases.
🏘️ Shift toward rentals and attached housing:
Many homeowners, especially younger buyers, are opting to rent longer, which supports rental construction instead of ownership starts.
🆕 New Rental-Oriented Housing
Across multiple housing types, including mid-rise apartments, stacked townhomes, and multi-unit buildings, rental-focused developments account for a growing share of starts. These are typically purpose-built rentals or mixed-use buildings that include commercial space and apartments.
This means that while condo ownership starts are down, housing supply in other residential segments is evolving, with rentals increasingly filling the void.
3️⃣ Builders Haven’t Left the Market — They’ve Change Strategy 🔄
Despite alarming headlines, builders are not abandoning construction 🚧.
Instead, developers are doing two things:
1️⃣ Reducing risk by shifting toward rentals
2️⃣ Taking a more cautious approach on ownership starts
Rather than betting on speculative condo sales, many builders are redirecting capital toward projects with more predictable demand and financing outcomes.
🏗️ Why Some Projects Start and Then Stall
You may have noticed quiet construction sites around York, Simcoe (Innisfil is a big one) or the GTA. Projects that started but now sit idle. There’s a reason this happens, and it’s not always “builders disappearing”:
Pre-sale shortfalls: Many condos or houses require a minimum percentage of units sold before construction can continue. If sales don’t meet that target, builders may pause.
Rising costs mid-project: Labour, materials, and permit changes can push a project over budget. Builders may stop temporarily to renegotiate contracts or adjust finances.
Financing or lender requirements: Even if a project is underway, banks can freeze funds if sales or appraisals fall short.
Market uncertainty: Developers often pause construction if the risk of future price drops or appraisal gaps threatens profitability.
💡 The takeaway: These “frozen” sites aren’t necessarily abandoned, they reflect a careful, strategic pause to protect investors, lenders, and buyers until market conditions improve.
4️⃣ Deep Dive: Why Builders Aren’t Building Like They Used To 💰🏗️
One of the most common questions I hear is:
“If demand is still there, why aren’t builders building more?”
The answer comes down to real economics and here’s what’s driving decisions in 2026.
📌 1. Higher Construction Costs
Building material costs — including steel, concrete, lumber, and finishing materials — remain well above pre-pandemic levels. Even when commodity prices ease, ongoing supply chain issues keep costs elevated.
📌 2. Labour Shortages
The construction industry is facing:
👷 A shortage of skilled trades
⏱️ Higher labour rates
👷♀️ Competition for qualified workers
This raises project costs and extends build timelines.
📌 3. Higher Financing Costs for Developers
Even though interest rates have softened slightly, borrowing is still more expensive than it was in the past decade.
Banks and lenders require higher risk premiums, meaning developers pay more to carry projects before they are profitable.
📌 4. Tight Pre-Sale Financing Requirements
Builders often must sell a significant percentage of units before lenders will release funds for construction. With buyers cautious, hitting these pre-sale targets is harder than expected.
📌 5. Appraisal Risk
If condos are sold on paper but appraise for less at completion, developers may face:
⬇️ Reduced financing
⬇️ Losses on units
⬇️ Project delays
That’s a powerful incentive to pause new starts until the market feels more predictable.
📌 Bottom line:
The economics of building, from the cost of steel to the cost of debts, means developers are making strategic decisions to de-risk their portfolios rather than launch speculative supply.
5️⃣ Purpose-Built Rental Construction Is Leading the Market 📈
Why rentals dominate new construction in 2025–2026
Across Ontario, including the GTA, purpose-built rentals now account for a large share of active residential construction.
🔹 Rental demand remains extremely strong
Rapid population growth, immigration, and affordability challenges mean more people are renting longer.
🔹 Stable, long-term income beats speculative sales
Rental buildings provide predictable cash flow, even when sales markets are uncertain.
🔹 Government supports rental construction
Programs that offer tax incentives, rebates, and financing support continue to make rentals more attractive.
🔹 No need for risky pre-sales
Developers can start rentals without selling units first! A major advantage in today’s market.
📊 Even though total housing starts in Ontario have lagged other provinces, rental construction has remained resilient through 2025–2026, often leading overall starts in many regions.
6️⃣ Why Barrie Is One of Ontario’s Bright Spots for Construction 🏗️🌟
Yes! Barrie’s construction activity is very real in 2026!
Barrie continues to see:
👷 Large-scale purpose-built rental developments
🏘️ Mixed-use and multi-tower residential projects
🚧 Strong construction pipelines along major corridors like Essa Road and Mapleview Drive
Thousands of rental units are either under construction or fully approved, making Barrie one of the most active secondary markets in Ontario today!
Why Barrie stands out
📍 More affordable development economics
Land and carrying costs are lower than in Toronto, making projects more feasible.
👨👩👧👦 Population growth remains robust
Barrie continues to attract families, professionals, and renters priced out of the GTA.
🚆 Hybrid and commuter lifestyle appeal
GO Transit access and highway connections make Barrie a strong choice for flexible workers.
🏛️ Municipal support for housing growth
City planning policies encourage higher-density and multi-residential development.
In many ways, Barrie shows where housing construction is still moving fast in 2026, while Toronto deals with economic constraints on ownership projects.
🏠 What This Means for Homeowners
If you’re a homeowner in Barrie, it’s natural to wonder: “Will all these rentals hurt my resale value if more people are renting instead of buying?”
Here’s the perspective:
Rising rentals don’t automatically lower resale values. High-quality, purpose-built rental developments often coexist with strong ownership demand, particularly if population growth continues. Barrie is still attracting families and professionals who want to buy, not just rent.
More rentals can support the local economy and community amenities. New rental residents often drive retail, services, and infrastructure improvements — which can enhance neighbourhood appeal for homeowners.
Ownership demand may adjust but not disappear. While some people rent longer due to affordability, others will continue to buy, especially families looking for stability. Smart buyers may even take advantage of periods where competition is less fierce.
💡 The takeaway:
As long as Barrie continues to grow and diversify housing supply, rental developments can complement, rather than cannibalize, the resale market. Homeowners can still see healthy appreciation, especially in well-located neighbourhoods with strong amenities and transit access.
In many ways, Barrie shows where housing construction is still moving fast in 2026, while Toronto faces tighter economics for ownership projects — making Barrie a compelling secondary market for both renters and homeowners.
7️⃣ Approved Doesn’t Mean Built: Ontario’s “Frozen Pipeline” 🧊
One of the most misunderstood parts of today’s housing story is this:
👉 Ontario has many approved housing projects — but far fewer that are actually underway.
Developers are waiting for:
✔️ Lower financing costs
✔️ Stronger buyer confidence
✔️ Better construction pricing stability
This gap between:
📄 Approved projects (paper supply)
🏗️ Active projects (real supply)
is one of the biggest factors influencing housing delivery over the next several years.
8️⃣ What Does This Mean for the Future? 🔮
🔮 A supply crunch is still a possibility
With fewer condo and ground-oriented housing starts now, there could be fewer completions in 2027–2029, even if demand returns.
🔑 Rental pressure may remain elevated
More people renting and insufficient delivery means rents could stay high longer than expected.
🏷️ Condo inventory could tighten
Today’s slow starts may lead to higher resale and pre-construction prices later this decade.
🌆 Secondary markets matter more than ever
Cities like Barrie are no longer “alternatives” they are key housing growth hubs.
🏗️ Builders are building differently
Expect:
✔️ Fewer micro-unit condos
✔️ More family-friendly rentals
✔️ Mixed-use communities
✔️ Longer project timelines
💭 Final Thoughts
Ontario is not facing a construction collapse.
It’s undergoing a market reset.
Builders aren’t disappearing — they’re adapting.
Condos are slower.
Rentals are leading.
And cities like Barrie are playing a much bigger role in the future of housing.
Understanding what’s happening now matters — whether you’re buying, renting, investing, or planning your next move.
❓ FAQ Section
Q1: Who pays property taxes on rental buildings?
The owner/developer pays property taxes, just like any property owner.
Q2: Who owns rental buildings?
Typically developers, REITs (real estate investment trusts), or private investors.
Q3: How do rental buildings benefit the local economy?
They fund schools, roads, and services, create construction and service jobs, and support population growth and local spending.
Q4: Will all these rentals hurt home resale values?
Not necessarily. High-quality rentals coexist with ownership demand and can increase neighbourhood amenities, which supports home values.
Q5: Why do some construction projects start and then stall?
Builders pause for reasons like pre-sale shortfalls, rising costs, financing issues, or market uncertainty. These are often strategic pauses, not abandonment.
Q6: Are condos dead in the GTA?
No — condos are slower, but developers are shifting focus to rentals and mixed-use projects while waiting for better economics.
📌 Disclaimer
This article reflects market conditions as of 2025–2026 and is provided for general informational purposes only. I am a local REALTOR®, not a lawyer, accountant, or financial advisor. Always consult appropriate professionals before making real estate, legal, or investment decisions.
📚 Sources Referenced
To support these insights, the following reports and data were referenced:
CMHC Housing Supply Report (2024) — national and regional housing starts data
Urbanation GTA Condo Market Report, Q3 2024 — historic context on condo launches
BuildForce Ontario Construction Outlook (2024) — labour and starts projections
City of Barrie Planning Application Updates (2024) — local approvals and growth
Ontario housing starts report (MidlandToday, 2025) — recent starts trends
RBC Canada Housing Market Forecast (2025–2026) — economic and supply projections
Barrie Housing Market Outlook (RE/MAX, 2026) — local sales and starts indicators
Toronto HousingTO Plan progress (2025–2026) — affordable/rental approval activity
💬 Looking to buy, rent, or invest in York, Simcoe County, Innisfil or Barrie?
I’m Gemma Leggett, your local real estate expert, here to guide you through today’s changing market. Whether it’s condos, rentals, or family homes, I can help you make the smartest move. Reach out today for personalized advice and local insights!

