Every time the Bank of Canada makes an announcement, the headlines start. “Will rates drop?” / “Should buyers wait?” / “Is now finally the time to get back into the market?”
And meanwhile, something pretty important has been happening quietly in the background.
Fixed mortgage rates have been going UP! Wait... what?
Didn't we spend the last year talking about interest rates coming down? Yes.
And this is exactly why Canadian buyers need to understand one very important thing: The Bank of Canada does NOT directly control fixed mortgage rates.
So if you're sitting on the sidelines waiting for the next Bank of Canada announcement before buying a home in Barrie, Innisfil or Simcoe County, you may be watching the wrong number.
Let's talk about it.
What's the Difference Between a Fixed and Variable Mortgage Rate?
The key distinction is that variable mortgage rates are closely tied to the Bank of Canada/prime rate, while fixed mortgage rates are driven much more by the bond market, particularly Government of Canada bond yields.
And that creates a very timely story for buyers in Barrie, Innisfil and Simcoe County.
Let's make this simple because mortgages already have enough terminology to make perfectly intelligent people want a glass of wine.
A variable mortgage rate is closely connected to your lender's prime rate. Prime is heavily influenced by the Bank of Canada's overnight rate.
So: Bank of Canada cuts → Prime generally falls → Variable mortgage rates generally fall.
Easy enough.
But fixed mortgage rates work differently!
They're influenced much more heavily by the bond market, particularly Government of Canada bond yields. And bond yields don't wait politely for the Bank of Canada to make an announcement.
They move based on what financial markets believe is coming next: inflation, economic growth, government borrowing, future interest rates and other economic risks.
That means fixed rates can start rising even while Canadians are waiting for the Bank of Canada to cut rates.
And that's essentially what we've been seeing.
What the last five years actually show
Here are the actual rates on newly advanced uninsured 5-year fixed mortgages rather than banks' advertised “posted rates.” CMHC's historical data shows this progression: roughly 2% in early 2021, climbing to 2.5% by the end of 2021, roughly 5.2% by the end of 2022, around 6% at the end of 2023, falling through 2024 to roughly 4.6%, and settling around the low-to-mid 4% range during 2025. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation
The pandemic lows were extraordinary. Some of the lowest advertised/discounted 5-year fixed rates actually reached about 1.39%. That wasn't normal mortgage pricing—it was an historic anomaly.
But 2026 is the really interesting part
This is what I want readers to understand.
During the summer, competitive fixed rates became much more attractive. In July, for example, the lowest insured 5-year fixed rate was around 4.09%, with some shorter fixed terms actually below 4%.
Then something happened while everybody kept staring at the Bank of Canada. Bond yields started climbing.
The Government of Canada 5-year bond yield was approximately 3.01% on June 30. By late September it had reached approximately 3.69%. Bank of Canada And fixed mortgage rates followed.
By October 6, the lowest listed 5-year fixed rate was around 4.34%, while average insured 5-year fixed rates were approximately 4.96% among the major banks and 4.88% among national lenders.
You can wait for the Bank of Canada to lower rates and still end up paying a higher mortgage rate.
That's the misconception worth educating people about!
What Have Fixed Mortgage Rates Done Over the Last 10 Years?
Important: these are posted benchmark rates, not necessarily the discounted fixed rate a buyer would actually receive. They're best for showing the trend over time. Treadstone Associates
2016–2021: relatively stable/low-rate environment
2022: sharp move upward
2023–2024: peak period
2025–2026: improvement, but nowhere near the ultra-cheap mortgage environment people became accustomed to.
And there is an even more dramatic consumer-rate example: actual discounted 5-year fixed offers fell as low as about 1.39% in December 2020. Statistics Canada
People shouldn't base today's buying decisions on the abnormal mortgage rates they remember from 2020–2021.
What Have Fixed Mortgage Rates Done Over the Last 20 Years?
Fixed vs. variable: this statistic surprised me
According to CMHC's 2025 Mortgage Consumer Survey:
62% had fixed-rate mortgages, 25% variable, and 9% had a combination of fixed and variable. Fixed declined from 69% in 2024, while variable increased from 23% to 25%. CMHC
There's another useful way to measure it. Bank of Canada data covering the stock of mortgages at federally regulated institutions found roughly 80% of outstanding mortgages were fixed and 20% variable as of September 2024. The difference is because the two studies measure different populations/definitions, so I would not mix the statistics without explaining that. Bank of Canada
For a consumer blog, I'd use the CMHC 62% / 25% / 9% figures because they're easier to understand.
VARIABLE RATE → Watch the Bank of Canada
The Bank of Canada changes its overnight rate → lenders' prime rates generally respond → variable mortgage rates respond.
FIXED RATE → Watch the bond market
Government bond yields rise → lenders' funding costs/market pricing rise → fixed mortgage rates tend to rise.
Bond yields fall → fixed rates can fall.
So when someone tells you:
“I'm waiting until the Bank of Canada cuts rates before I buy.”
Your response becomes:
“Which rate are you waiting for?”
Because that's the entire point.
Does Half a Percentage Point Really Matter?
YES!!!! Here is what 0.25% actually costs
For example, on a $600,000 mortgage amortized over 25 years:
Going from 4.00% to 4.50% is about $165/month, or nearly $2,000 per year.
And there's another consequence buyers forget: a higher mortgage rate can reduce how much they qualify to borrow.
That matters enormously for someone waiting six months hoping rates improve while simultaneously watching fixed rates rise.
Should You Wait for Mortgage Rates to Drop Before Buying a Home?
This is where I think buyers need to change the question!!!! Instead of asking: “When will rates drop?”
Ask: “If the right property comes along today, do the numbers work for me today?”
Because nobody... not your Realtor, your mortgage broker, economists or the guy on TikTok with seventeen charts behind him can guarantee where mortgage rates will be six months from now.
And waiting has a cost too!
The rate could fall. The rate could rise.
Home prices could fall. Home prices could rise.
The property you wanted could sell. Or another opportunity could appear.
That's why I don't believe buyers should make a real estate decision based solely on trying to perfectly time an interest rate.
What Should Barrie, Innisfil and Simcoe County Buyers Do Right Now?
Before deciding to wait, talk to a qualified mortgage professional and find out:
What fixed rates are actually available to you today?
What variable rates are available?
What's the difference in monthly payment?
How much do you qualify for?
Can your rate be held while you shop?
And what happens to your purchasing power if rates move another 0.25% or 0.50%?
Then we can look at the other side of the equation:
What is happening with home prices and negotiating opportunities in the local real estate market?
Because your mortgage rate is only one part of the purchase.
Sometimes the opportunity to negotiate $25,000, $40,000 or $50,000 off a home's price matters a lot more than trying to predict the next 0.25% move in interest rates.
And that's the conversation I wish more buyers were having.
Mortgage rates and examples in this article are for general educational purposes only and can change without notice. Available rates depend on the borrower, lender, mortgage type, down payment, credit profile, property and other factors. I am a Real Estate Broker, not a mortgage broker or financial advisor. Speak with a qualified mortgage professional for advice specific to your situation.
Thinking about buying in Barrie, Innisfil, Simcoe County or around Lake Simcoe?
Before you decide to wait for “rates to come down,” let's look at the whole picture today's home prices, negotiating opportunities, inventory and what your budget can actually buy right now.
Gemma Leggett | Real Estate Broker
Barrie & Lake Simcoe Waterfront Real Estate
